Risk Analysis and Risk Management in Traffic Safety

                                         By Vemir Ambartsoumian,

           

     ABSTRACT OF THE PROPOSED BOOK Traffic Safety

                                       FOR PUBLICATION

 

                                         Dear Colleague!   

 

  I am pleased to present for your consideration the information of the book "Risk Analysis and Risk Management in Traffic Safety" (available in Russian and Armenian, 3-rd edition was published in 1999).

This book is an interdisciplinary professional manual, where widely discussed risk analysis and risk management in traffic safety, which is officially recommended for educational institutions.

   The necessity for publication of this manual dictated by constantly increasing number and fatality of motor vehicle crashes. The manual is intended as an Educational, Informational and Methodological support for traffic safety. It is a guide for applied research in traffic safety evaluating the effectiveness of measures to prevent the road accident.

   Contributors to this manual including professionals from a wide range of institutions: engineers, safety officers, statistics, lawyers, psychologists, economists, environmental and occupational health scientists, social and behavioral scientists.

    My personal experience for many years in Russia, Armenia, Algeria, Greece, India, and France allow me to ascertain that this book is fined in the great demands in various countries.

      I would like to discuss possibilities of publication this book and will greatly appreciate your assistance on this meter.

 

                  Vemir Ambartsoumian, PhD,

                  Telephone: (201) 244-1550; 

                  E- mail: vemir@yahoo.com  

                  WEB Site: www.vemirarm.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

                       ABSTRACT OF THE PROPOSED BOOK

                    “ Risk Analysis and Risk Management in Traffic Safety”

   

   Motor vehicle crashes are the primary killer of the people in the 16-34 age group. They occupy the third place among the causes of death after cancer and heart attacks. Every year over forty thousand Americans are killed, some 3,5 million are crippled or injured, over 24 million cars are totaled or damaged. The annual material damage to the US economy caused by road accidents adds up to over $ 200 billion. This book will provide a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between Risk Analysis and Risk Management in Traffic Safety. To accomplish this, the modern knowledge and practical experience are collected, classified, arranged, and applied to all relevant fields of traffic safety. The book deals with the most important and pressing issues of today: assurance of traffic safety and prevention road accidents. It consists of two parts.

 

Part I. Risk Analysis in Traffic Safety (p. 1-240). The part will define the scientific basis for the analysis of mechanisms and causes road accidents. Safety is a complex problem. It involves driver behavior, vehicle characteristics, roadway features, and driving conditions. The book defines the interaction between host (human), agent (vehicle), and environmental (road, traffic conditions) factors before, during and after crashes. The organizational, technical, psychological, physiological, social and juridical factors influencing in road accidents have been linked within an integral composite of cause-effect pattern. Part I contains: Methods of Risk Theory and Practical Application; Analysis of Psychological and Physiological Factors (of road accidents); Analysis of Social and Juridical factors; Analysis of Technical and Organizational Factors; General and Detailed Analysis of Danger Factors; Risk Assessment in the Field.

 

 Part II. Risk Management in Traffic Safety (P. 241-505). In order to reduce the road accident rate, the competence of specialists and drivers responsible for traffic safety must be enhanced and perfected. This book offers scientifically based solution to this important issues, in the context of a systematically described Risk Management techniques related to various aspects of traffic safety. Part II contain: General Principles Risk Management in Traffic Safety; Legislative and Juridical Bases for Traffic Safety; Application of Methods for Optimal Decision Making; Complex Measures Concerning the Prevention Road Accidents (Active, Passive, Ecological and Post-Accident Safety of Automobiles;

Methods of Road Construction, Operation and Organization of Roadway Traffic; Measures for Drivers and Participants of Roadway Traffic); Risk Management, Control and Organization in Traffic Safety; Selection and Determination of  Effective Accident Prevention Measures; Risk Assurance in Traffic Safety; Responsibility for Violation of the   Traffic Safety Norms.

 

This book is intended as an informational and methodological support for traffic safety issues and a guide for applied research advancement in traffic safety. It is also intended for selection of effective measures based on cost/benefit criteria. The application of these methods has already resulted in considerable enhancement of traffic safety in Armenia  (45 %), Russia (23 %), and Algeria (20 %).

 

The publication this book in English will become marketable worldwide as a manual for the specialists of traffic safety; researchers and engineers in automobile transportation and roadway industry; professors and students of universities and colleges; drivers and various specialists involved in practical measure aimed at enhancement of traffic safety on highways and roads.

 

 Vemir Ambartsoumian, PhD,

 Telephone: (201) 240-1550

 E-mail: vemir@yahoo.com  

 WEB Site: www.vemirarm.com

                

  Proposed for the Enhancement of Traffic Safety

 

1. The determination and the identification of a dangerous points and frequent accident locations on the municipal roads and city streets. Development and implementation of concrete preventive measures based on the cost/benefit criteria.

 

2. Analysis of state and development of specific measures  (for a given city or a country) to improve efficiency of bus passenger transportation and organization of pedestrian traffic in order to increase traffic safety.

 

3. Analysis of causes of road accidents and development of measures to reduce child injures due to road accidents in urban area with high accident rate.

 

4. Application of specific methods, to increasing the reliability and endurance of the drivers of heavy trucks and buses by reducing road stress and fatigue.

 

          5. Development of methodology to establish an exactly determination of the timing when road situation becomes dangerous. This timing must be tied to the cause-consequence correlation of a road accident, and then determination should be made whether a driver had technical means of preventing a particular given type of road accident.

 

 6. Identification of legal and administrative fines imposed for traffic violations contingent upon road accident's consequences and hazard degree for specific types of road accidents and their location (city, state).

 

                              Credentials of Ambartsoumian  Vemir, PhD

 

1965 Moscow Automobile Engineering Institute: MS Road Transport Engineering & Maintenance;

1981: PhD; Doctor of Science in field of Organization and Management in Social, Economic, and Technical Systems;

1994: Word Bank Expert on Transport Project Analysis;

1995: Road Transport Expert of the Russian National Experts Council;

1996: Elected Member of the International Academy of Sciences  (Ecology and Life Protection);

1997: Elected Member of the Russian Academy of Transport;

1998: Elected Member of the Academy of New York; 

1999 Acclaimed Honored Scientist of Russian Federation.

1965 - 1999 educated at the top Moscow Institutes for Transport Engineering,  Armenian Automobile Transport Education Department  and High Education Technical School in Algeria.

Author of 12 Manuals, Monographs, textbooks, and more then 200-feature articles on Traffic Safety and Transport Exploitation publicized in English, French, Russian, and Armenian.

Research of the Transport Safety and Environmental Safety based on General Theory of System, Theory Reliability and Risk Analysis of the Technical Systems (over 30years of experience).

President of the Traffic Safety Foundation of Armenia and Professor in Moscow Automobile-Road Institute.

 

             

           

 

                 INFORMATION ON PROPOSED BOOK

 

       “Risk Analysis and Risk Management in Traffic Safety”

 

Road accidents occupied third place among the cause of death, after cancer and heart attacks, according to the statistics of International Organization of Health.

The accidents statistic data shows, that in 2003, motor-vehicle crashes in USA resulted in 42.000 deaths, 3.5 million nonfatal injuries, and 25 million vehicles in crashes; cost estimates are $200 billion in United States.

The principal causes of accidents are 75-85% factors of human behavior such as: Lack of knowledge, Lack of ability, Unwillingness.

Therefore, in order to reduce road accident rate, the competence of drivers and specialists responsible for Traffic Safety must be enhanced. This book offers scientifically based solution to those important issues.

This book defined intersection between human, motor - vehicle, and environment  (micro and macro) factors before, during, and after crashes.

This is the only book, where the author is pioneers determination of 22 driver factors, 34 vehicle factors, 56 road and traffic organization factors, 40 pedestrian and other traffic participants’ as well as 40 environmental factors participate in the occurrence of road accident.

The book offers an unprecedented package of 368 comprehensive actions and procedures designed to prevent automobile crashes, namely, 24 automobile active safety measures; 23 automobile passive safety measures; 20 automobile post-accident safety measures; 41 environmental safety measures; 27 road and highway construction measures; 44 traffic organization measures; 41 traffic participants’ measures;60 vehicle operator measures, and 88 actions for road  maintenance.

        This is the only book where organizational, technical, psychological, physiological, medical, economic and legal issues of Traffic Safety improvement have been linked within an integral composite of cause-effect pattern of road accidents.

The following is the readership of the book: Students, University Professors, Engineers, Drivers, Research Scientists, Police Officers, Safety Managers, Statisticians, Lawyers, Psychologists, Physiologists, Environmental Scientists, Occupational Health Scientists, Economists and Social Specialists.

The Russian and Armenian version of this book was published several times (1977,1980,1981,1985, 1997,1998,1999) in Moscow, St. Petersburg and Yerevan, and it is recommended for Educational and Research institutions. It is intended as an informational and methodological support for Traffic Safety issues and Guide for applied research of achievements in Traffic Safety.

Moreover, the book is highly beneficial from the social, moral and economic perspective, since even a marginal implementation of the measures offered by the author, will result in 10-15% enhancement of Traffic Safety, as has been proven in Russia and Armenia.

 

01.26.2005.

 

RISK ANALYSIS AND RISK MANAGEMENT OF TRAFFIC SAFETY

 

                       In two parts:

 

       Part I. Risk Analysis of  Traffic  Safety

       Part II. Risk  Management of  Traffic  Safety

 

       ISBN 5-217-02871

       ISBN 92-9120-9880

 

 

       Part one

Risk  Analysis of  Traffic  Safety

Introduction.

List of abbreviations

Chapter 1. Condition and ways for Resolution Problem Traffic Safety (RPTS)

1.1. Actuality of the problem.....

1.2. Complexity of  the problem solution ......  

1.3. Ways of the problem solution ......  

Chapter 2. Scientifically methodical basis  of (RPTS)     

2.1. Basic definitions..  

2.2. General systematic approach to the problem solution

2.3. Problem of RPTS in a system "Driver - Automobile - Road - Environment" (DARE)...

2.4. Quantitative methods of analysis..

2.5. Quantitative - qualitative methods of analysis.  

2.6. Intuitively - logical methods...

Chapter 3. Logical analysis for RPTS

3.1. Basic definitions

3.2. Simplification of logical expressions by a method of cards...

3.3. Logical analysis of an auto transport expertise...

3.4. Logical analysis of road accident causes.

Chapter 4. Definition of component reliability of the system DARE.

4.1. Basic definitions.

4.2. Parameters of reliability.

4.3. Fundamental laws of a random distribution.

4.4. Methods for obtaining of reliability parameters .

4.5. Models of failure appearance.

Chapter 5. Calculus of probabilities of component and system reliability for RPTS.

5.1. Basic definitions.

5.2. Calculation of accident probabilities.

5.3. Calculation of systems' components reliability.

5.4. Definition of structure reliability.

5.5. Reliability theory application for safety system analysis.

Chapter 6. The analysis of event trees for RPTS systems.

6.1. Basic definitions.

6.2. Main event and its probabilities definition .

6.3. Definition of alternate measures.

6.4. Quantification of risk events.

6.5. Algorithms and computer programs.

Chapter 7. Methods of the risk theory in RPTS system.

7.1. Basic definitions.

7.2. Risk analysis of transport systems.

7.3. Methods of detection and elimination of risk factors in automobile transport.

7.4. Practical examples.

Chapter 8. General analysis of dangers and assessment of preventive measures.

8.1. Basic definitions.

8.2. General analysis of dangers.

8.3. Detailed study of dangers.

8.4. Efficiency of danger elimination.

8.5. Algorithms and computer programs.

Chapter 9. Analysis of the psycho-physiological factors for RPTS.

9.1. Basic definitions.

9.2. Analysis of  psychological factors.

9.3. Analysis of  physiological factors.

9.4. Analysis of preventive medical factors.

9.5. Driver's health factors analysis.

Chapter 10. Analysis of social and legal problems for RPTS.

10.1. Basic definitions.

10.2. Analysis of legal problems.

10.3. Analysis of social problems.

10.4. Identification of risk factors.

10.5. Characteristic features of a dangerous situation.

Chapter 11. Expertise of risk factors in road traffic.

11.1 Basic definitions.

11.2 Organization of expertise.

11.3 Expert investigation.

11.4 Basic parameters of expertise.

11.5 Expertise of a tripping-over of the automobile on the pedestrian.

11.6 Expertise of automobile collision.

11.7 Practical examples of expertise.

References.

 

Part two.

Risk Management of Traffic Safety

Foreword.

List of abbreviations.

Chapter 1. Principles of organization and management the safety of road traffic.

1.1 Basic definitions.

1.2 Principles of management the transport and road complex in market conditions.

1.3 Management principles for RPTS.

Chapter 2. Legislative and normative - legal problems of RPTS.

2.1 Basic definitions.

2.2 International laws and standard on RPTS.

2.3. State laws and standards

2.4. Complex and purpose-oriented programs of RPTS

2.5 Financing and control in the system.

Chapter 3. Licensing and certification in RPTS.

3.1 Basic definitions.

3.2 Licensing of automobile cargo and passenger transportation.

3.3 Licensing of international cargo and passenger transportation.

3.4 System of certification of automobiles and their aggregates.

3.5 Realization of certification and inspection control.

Chapter 4. Control of systems of the databases of accidents.

4.1 Main definitions.

4.2 Collecting, transmission, storage and data analysis of road and transport accidents (RTA).

4.3 Government system for accounting of road accidents data.

4.4 Investigation of road accidents.

4.5 Standard characteristics of risk factors of RTA.

Chapter 5. Road and traffic safety.

5.1 Basic definitions.

5.2 Basic requirements to highways.

5.3 Basic requirements to operational condition of highways.

5.4 Reliability improvement of highways.

5.5 Organization of road traffic for RPTS.

Chapter 6. Driver and traffic safety.

6.1 Basic definitions.

6.2 Training and improvement of professional skill of a driver.

6.3 Increase of professional reliability of a driver.

6.4 Working and rest time of a driver.

6.5 Status monitoring and driver’s health.

Chapter 7. Automobile and traffic safety.

7.1 Basic definitions

7.2 Requirement to construction safety of an automobile.

7.3 Technical condition control of an automobile.

7.4 Requirement to the admission of automobiles to exploitation.

7.5 Passive and ecological safety of automobiles.

Chapter 8. Safety control of transportation of the passengers by buses.

8.1 Basic definitions.

8.2 Reliability of a bus driver.

8.3 Reliability of a bus.

8.4 Safety control of road conditions on bus routes.

8.5 Organization of secure transportation of the passengers by buses.

Chapter 9. Risk insurance on motor transport.

9.1 Basic definitions.

9.2 Role of insurance in traffic safety.

9.3 Types of automobile insurance.

9.4 Insurance of a civil liability of automobiles’ owners.

9.5 Insurance as the social and economic mechanism for increasing traffic safety.

Chapter 10. Organization and management of risk in traffic safety.

10.1 Basic definitions.

10.2 Structure of preventive measures.

10.3 Measure for active, passive, ecological and post-accident safety of automobiles.

10.4 Measures for road condition and organization of traffic.

10.5 Measures for drivers.

10.6 Measures for participants of traffic.

10.7 Organization and management of system measures for improving traffic safety.

Chapter 11. Selection of effective preventive measures for traffic safety.

11.1 Basic definitions.

11.2 Methods of decision making in conditions of uncertainty.

11.3 Economic efficiency of preventive measures.

11.4 Module costs / benefit.

11.5 Algorithms and computer programs.

Chapter 12. Responsibility for violation of the rules and norms of traffic safety.

12.1 Basic definitions.

12.2 Criminal responsibility.

12.3 Administrative responsibility.

References.

Appendix.

 

                   

 

 

 

 

        Risk Analysis and Risk Management in Traffic Safety

                   

                           Manual for Educational and research institutions

 

                                   (on Russian and Armenian languages)

 

 

                                    Publications by:

 

              MOSCOW                               ENGINEERING’’                    1997, 1998,  1999

              YEREVAN                                    “LOYUS”          1977, 1981, 1984, 1989, 1993

 

 

 

                                                                    Contents

Introduction............................................................................................................3

List of abbreviations ...............................................................................................4

Chapter 1. Actuality of  the Resolution Problem Traffic Safety (RPTS)

1.1. Actuality of the  problem Traffic Safety………...............................................    .5

1.2. Complexity of  the problem resolution ... .........................................................  8 

1.3. Methods of the problem resolution .....................................      .....................   12

Chapter 2. Scientific-methodical fundamentals of RPTS…................................14     

2.1. Basic definitions.. ................................................... ......................................    14 

2.2. General - systematic approach to the problem solution ..................................  18

2.3. Problem of RPTS in a system "Driver - Automobile - Road - Environment" (DARE)...............................................................................................................       24

2.4. Quantitative methods of risk analysis.............................................................    27

2.5. Qualitative methods of risk analysis................................................................   31

2.6. Intuitively - logical methods of risk analysis ................................................       35

Chapter 3. Logical analysis for RPTS ...................................................................38

3.1. Basic definitions ..........................................................................................       38

3.2. Simplification of risk analysis by a method of cards......................................      41

3.3. Logical analysis of an automobile-technical expertise of accidents ...............    50

3.4. Logical analysis of road accident causes....................................................... .   58

Chapter 4. Reliability of the system DARE..........................................................  60

4.1. Basic definitions.............................................................................................     60

4.2. Definition parameters of reliability................................................................       63

4.3. Fundamental laws of a random distribution..................................................      73

4.4. Methods for obtaining reliability parameters ................................................      76

4.5. Models of failure appearance of components and systems........................….   79

Chapter 5. Calculation of probabilities  and system reliability for RPTS........…82

5.1. Basic definitions..................................................................................             …82

5.2. Calculation of accident probabilities..........................................................…      85

5.3. Calculation of systems' components reliability..........................................…..    93

5.4. Definition of structure reliability..............................................................…...      98

5.5. Reliability theory application for safety system analysis.......................…....     101

Chapter 6. The analysis of event trees for RPTS systems .................................107

6.1. Basic definitions...........................................................................................       107

6.2. Main event and its probabilities definition.....................................................      113

6.3. Definition of alternate measures...................................................................      118

6.4. Quantification of risk events.........................................................................       124

6.5. Algorithms and computer programs..............................................................      130

Chapter 7. Methods of the risk theory for RPTS system .....................................140

7.1. Basic definitions...........................................................................................       140

7.2. Risk analysis of transport process ................................................................     149

7.3. Methods of  elimination of risk situations in automobile transport...... ..........      158

7.4. Practical examples of risk theory .................................................................      164

Chapter 8. General analysis and Detailed study of traffic dangers……………   170

8.1. Basic definitions...........................................................................................        170

8.2. General analysis of dangers..........................................................................      173

8.3. Detailed study of dangers.............................................................................       180

8.4. Determination of efficiency of danger elimination .......................................        193

8.5. Algorithms and computer programs.............................................................        197

Chapter 9. Analysis of the psycho-physiological factors of RPTS......................208

9.1. Basic definitions...........................................................................................        208

9.2. Analysis of  psychological factors.................................................................       214

9.3. Analysis of  physiological factors.................................................................        252

Chapter 10. Analysis of the social problems of RPTS.

10.1.Basic definitions

10.2. Analysis of social problems........................................................................         257

10.3. Identification of juridical and social risk factors.........................................           257

10.4. Determination of the moment a dangerous situation arises ........................        273

Chapter 11. Expertise of risk factors in road traffic.............................................    277

11.1 Basic definitions..........................................................................................           277

11.2 Organization of expertise.............................................................................          279

11.3 Expert investigation....................................................................................           .285

11.4 Basic parameters of expertise.....................................................................           293

11.5 Expertise of a tripping-over of the automobile on the pedestrian.................           300

11.6 Expertise of car collusions of risk analysis participants of traffic                             303                                                        

11.7 Principles of organization and management  for improving traffic safety                308       

Chapter 12. Selection and determination of effective preventive measures for traffic safety..       .........................................................................................................               314

12.1 Basic  definitions.........................................................................................               314

12.2 Methods of decision making in conditions of uncertainty. ...........................              316

12.3 Economic efficiency of preventive measures................................................             324

12.4 Module costs / benefit..................................................................................              330

12.5 Algorithms and computer programs............................................................               340

Chapter 13. Responsibility for violation of the rules and norms of traffic safety      350

13.1 Basic definitions..........................................................................................               350

13.2 Criminal responsibility................................................................................                355

13.3 Administrative and economic responsibility................................................               355

References..............................................................................................…........              365

Appendix..................................................................................................   .....     368

Literature…………………………………………………………………          370